CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-09-10T18:24:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/).
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Sep 11 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

**Amendment**

**Amended to update forecast**

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was high. The largest solar event of the period was an
X1/2b flare (R3/Strong) at 10/1745 UTC from Region 2158 (N15W00,
Dkc/beta-gamma) with associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps, and a
10cm radio burst.

The latest analysis of the WSA Enlil solar wind model indicated the
coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X1 flare is likely to
have an Earthward component, has an estimated speed near 1400 km/s, and
is expected to pass the Earth's magnetosphere mid to late day (universal
time) on 12 Sep. This CME follows the 9 Sep CME, mentioned in previous
discussions, that is expected to arrive early on 12 Sep as well.

Region 2158 appeared to display signs of slight decay and spot
consolidation in the trailer portion of the sunspot group. As previously
stated, Region 2158 had a noticeable separation of the penumbral area,
separating into two distinct magnetic polarities, thus losing its delta
magnetic configuration. Region 2157 (S14W11, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was
responsible for a C2/Sf flare at 10/0524 UTC and showed consolidation in
its leader and intermediate spots but appeared to maintain its delta
magnetic configuration. With the exception of an anticipated coronal
mass ejection (CME) from the X1/2b flare there were no additional
Earth-directed CMEs observed in satellite imagery during the reporting
period.
     
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a
chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater) for the next three days (11-13
Sep). Regions 2157 and 2158 continue to be the likely source of
significant flare activity due to their size and complex magnetic
structure.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was still slightly elevated but continued a steady
decline. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels
at 11/0240 UTC and continue to rise. The greater than 100 MeV proton
flux reached the 1 pfu level at 11/0425 UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels
over the next three days (11-13 Sep). S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms
are expected on day one (11 Sep) due to effects from the X1 flare
observed today, and levels will likely remain elevated into day two (12
Sep). A chance for S1-Minor solar radiation storms exists for day three
(13 Sep) as CME effects continue, as well as flare potential from
Regions 2157 and 2158.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE continued to indicate a nominal solar wind
regime. Solar wind speeds began the period at 352 km/s, reached a high
near 395 km/s. IMF total field values held steady between 3 nT to 9 nT
throughout the period, while Bz fluctuated between -7 and +7 nT. Phi
angle remained in a negative (toward) orientation throughout the
majority of the period, however a solar sector boundary change to a
positive (away) orientation was observed at approximately 10/2140 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at normal background levels
for day one (11 Sep). Early on day two (12 Sep), an enhancement in the
interplanetary magnetic field and a simultaneous increase in density,
speed, and temperature at the ACE spacecraft are expected in conjunction
with the forecast shock arrival of the 09 Sep CME. Further enhancement
is expected later in the day as CME effects from today's X1/2b flare are
expected to begin. Conditions are expected to last into day three (13
Sep) as CME effects linger.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for day one (11 Sep). Early on
day two (12 Sep), the 09 Sep CME is expected to impact the Earth's
magnetosphere and quiet to major storm (G2/Moderate) conditions are
expected as a result. Later in the day, the CME from today's X1 flare is
expected to arrive, pushing conditions to the severe storm level
(G3/Strong) by the beginning of day three (13 Sep).

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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Sep 11 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

**Amendment**

**Amended to reflect current forecast**

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (NOAA Scale
G0).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 11-Sep 13 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 11-Sep 13 2014

            Sep 11     Sep 12     Sep 13
00-03UT        3          2          7 (G3)
03-06UT        4          4          6 
06-09UT        3          6 (G2)     6 
09-12UT        2          5 (G1)     5 
12-15UT        1          4          5 
15-18UT        1          4          4 
18-21UT        2          3          4 
21-00UT        2          4          4 

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on day
two (12 Sep) with the anticipated arrival of the 09 Sep CME. G3 (Strong)
geomagnetic storms are likely by day three (13 Sep) as the CME from
today's R3 radio blackout arrives.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 11-Sep 13 2014

              Sep 11  Sep 12  Sep 13
S1 or greater   75%     50%     30%

Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected on
day one (11 Sep) in response to the R3 (Strong) flare event that
occurred today at 10/1745 UTC from Region 2158 (N15W00). Solar radiation
levels are likely to remain elevated on day two (12 Sep) and a chance
for S1 (Minor) levels exists on day three due to potential flare
activity from Regions 2157 (S14W11) and 2158.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 10 2014 1745 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 11-Sep 13 2014

              Sep 11        Sep 12        Sep 13
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   40%           40%           40%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected
throughout the period with a chance for R3 (Strong) activity due to
flare potential from Regions 2157 and 2158.

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